During my early investment days, I came across the term bullion and I had no idea about the meaning of it. I imagine there are many folks out there in exactly the same position I was during my early days. In this article, my aim is to answer the question of what is a gold bullion and how the markets use it.
What is a Gold Bullion?
What is a gold bullion, and how it can be a tool of investment? Gold bullion is when gold itself has been refined to such a degree that it is now in its purest form.
The word bullion comes from the French Minister of finance Claude de Bullion. The value of the bullion is determined by the value of the precious metal content, which is defined by its purity and mass.
Many people actually confuse gold bullion with large gold bars. In fact, gold bullion can be small golden bars from 1gram to 1 kilo and even more. In addition, gold coins are also considered to be gold bullion.
The specifications of bullion are regulated by market bodies or legislation. In the European Union, the minimum purity for gold bullion is 99,5% for gold bars and 90% for gold coins.
Gold Bullion Characteristics
Gold bullion is gold in its purest form often kept in the form of coins, bars, or ingots
Gold bullion is not just an asset in many cases it has been considered to be a legal tender
Central Banks and other institutional investors hold large amounts of gold bullion
Investors small and large can buy gold bullion through specific dealers
Investors can also put money in gold bullion through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or futures contracts
Why Central Banks Hold Gold Bullion
It is estimated central banks hold 20% of the gold bars mined. Central banks hold gold bars for a number of reasons. One of them is to protect their portfolios from inflation and a market downturn. In addition, they use gold bullion to settle the international debt or to stimulate the economy through gold lending.
Moreover, central banks sell and lend gold to other banks and mining companies. Gold is a useful tool in the hands of the central banks.
Why Investors Buy Gold Bullion
A hedge against inflation
Gold is a non-correlated asset (its price tends to rise during a market downturn)
How the Price of Gold is Determined
The price of gold bullion is influenced, by demand from companies who use gold to make jewelry and other products, and by perceptions of the overall economy. For example, political, or financial instability, affects the price of gold bullion.
Gold Bars or Gold Coins?
When the time comes to invest in physical gold you could find yourself wondering what would be better gold bars or coins? I am in favor of gold bullion coins as they are easier to store and sell rather than bars.
However, gold bullion bars are still an excellent way to invest in gold. Bare in mind, that it could be better to own ten 100 gr bullion bars rather than a 1-kilo bar. It is much easier to sell the ten 100 gr bars rather than the 1-kilo bar.
Ways to Invest in Gold Bullion
There are many ways an investor can obtain gold bullion. This can be done in physical form, (physical gold I recommend) gold coins, bars, or even ingots.
Another way for the investor to get access to the bullion market is through exchanged-traded funds. (ETFs) Gold ETFs are securities that track the gold market. Gold ETFs are the easy way to own gold and it can be done through a standard broker or an IRA broker.
The futures market is another way for the investor to enter the bullion market. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a commodity or an asset at a particular price with the agreement ending at a preset date. You can invest in futures through a broker but I do not recommend it. A futures contract might lead you to extremely high gains and it might also lead you to bankruptcy.
Gold bullion is a popular investment asset. Institutional investors, central banks, and smaller investors are including gold bullion in their investment portfolios for their own reasons.
Joe Biden, the newly elected US President is just about to face a number of issues that will be almost impossible to tackle. One of them is the financial bubble 2021.
The social and political divisions in the US cannot be cured by optimistic calls for unity. Then there is the moral duty to do something about the covid19 pandemic. In addition, sooner rather than later the President will have to deal with the effects of the largest financial bubble ever in the history of the United States of America.
When I say the largest financial bubble ever I am dead serious about it. We are currently living in the largest financial bubble because it includes almost all available assets thanks to the Federal Reserve.
Reasons Behind the Financial Bubble 2021
The Fed’s Irrational Policy
The Fed willingly encouraged investors to buy overpriced assets. Dealing with the Fed’s irrational policy will be a very difficult task. In fact, it will be of the same magnitude as the gold standard exit in the early 70s was, or dealing with the high inflation numbers in the early 80s.
It will take strong political action and a full review of the country’s monetary policy.
The ex-Fed president and now the US secretary of the treasury will not be much of a help. Mrs. Yellen walked the same path set by Allan Greenspan. Unfortunately, it wasn’t just her, all her predecessors did the same.
Alan Greenspan’s recipe during a crisis was to reduce interest rates and thus extend enormously Fed’s balance sheet.
Every time the Fed intervened to “help the economy” by just lowering interest rates, what it actually did was to set up the conditions for the current bubble and consequently the oncoming financial crisis.
Inflation Gradually Accelerates
Nonetheless, this game is now over. Inflation is slowly picking up and personal spending has risen 1,5% more than expected. Certainly, this is not much but in the middle of the covid19 pandemic that number gives us an indication that it will continue to rise.
The truth of the matter is that nobody paid any attention to these figures as everyone followed the GameStop media frenzy.
The Fed’s Money Printing
The Fed prints money nonstop. This way it finances a large chunk of the government deficit. The huge amount of money the Fed has created always finds a way to come out of the banking system. At the same time, there are extensive restrictions in the food chain, processing, manufacturing, and in-services.
Free Money is About to End
The oncoming inflation hike will force the Fed to tighten up its monetary policy. The Fed stretches out moves like that will be slow and take time. However, the markets always react before the Fed, especially in a crisis situation as fear takes over.
No matter which way you turn there are signs of a wild derailment. Most investment and market analysts see it coming, except the bankers. It is expected for most types of investments to lose money over the next years.
The Stock Market Bubble
When it comes to the index that really matters, the index that predicts real returns things do not look good. The US stock market is overpriced in fact, its value is similar to 1929, 2001, and just before the 2008 global financial crisis.
All stock market bubbles tend to keep up with fast credit expansion and the credit expansion we are seeing right now is not the exemption. Business debt compared to GDP has exploded over the last few years. One of the reasons for that was the large GDP drop.
In my mind, the stock market bubble that is on its way will be one of the worst ever. That stock market disaster will be the result of the effects of the financial bubble 2021.
In the past, when the stock market was facing difficulties investors had the opportunity to put their money in government bonds. Nowadays this is not viable. Government bonds in Europe and Japan tend to offer zero or negative interest rates. The return of the US bonds is 1,1% right now, which is poor.
It will also be a bad idea for the investor to buy private company debt. Private company debt is also not worth investing in. Their returns are at all-time historical lows. Even the high-risk bond returns have never been lower.
It looks like there will be a time when investors won’t find a place that offers decent returns to put their money.
The Fed Will Take Swift Action
When investors are about to face a financial crisis, the same goes for the Fed and the White House. The Fed’s duty will be to move carefully because nobody wants the markets to panic. If the markets should panic then, billions of dollars could be lost overnight.
Nevertheless, seeing the oncoming crisis and doing nothing to deal with it is not politically correct. Inflation has a negative impact. It affects the poor more than the rich. A development like that doesn’t do much for social justice, and the politicians will always step up and do something about it. Unfortunately, in most cases what they do doesn’t always work.
Many of you will disagree with me and there is nothing wrong with that. However, in the next few months, we are about to find out how big is the hole the Fed has created. How much it will damage the markets, the bank itself, the ordinary folk out there, and the US.
All data indicates that 2021 will be a very interesting year. The financial bubble 2021 built by the Fed will explode with huge implications for the economy and all investors.
When the world’s largest economy gets in trouble then the global economy suffers too. A US financial crisis will turn into a world financial crisis, with stock markets around the world crushing.
Most assets will suffer great losses except for gold and other precious metals. Many market analysts argue cryptocurrencies could also be a safe place to be during those times. I still think cryptos are too unstable but there is a belief that cryptos might attract funds.
Everybody knows gold is a safe haven during bad times. It always has been and it will always be. Every time there has been a crisis situation gold has been called upon to save the day and never disappointed. It always has been and it will always be.
Gold is a non-correlated asset which means when all other mainstream assets take a downturn gold tends to move the opposite way and it actually sees its value grows.
The supply and demand basics for precious metal markets got tossed into disarray this year, resulting in heightened volatility– initially on the drawback, then on the upside. Will the gold and silver supply and demand in 2021 will be such that will drive the prices of the two assets higher?
Although god and silver will complete 2020 listed below their highs for the year, the gold price will end up with a yearly return of near 25%; and silver around 45%.
Can Precious Metal Investors Expect More Price Appreciation in 2021?
Yes, however, there are some near-term threats to the favorable long-lasting supply/demand outlook.
Assuming financial conditions begin stabilizing next year, we would anticipate demand– specifically from commercial users– to increase. Mine production is expected to rebound also.
The mining market, like numerous others, faced extraordinary operational challenges in 2020 due to covid19 interruptions. Many mines around the world were required to scale back or suspend production in the first half of the year.
By the third quarter, mining output among significant producers started to ramp back up. In general, however, the top 20 gold miners will end up 2020 with an approximated 5% drop in output.
The mining industry is issuing positive assistance for 2021. Whether it fully recuperates to pre-covid19 numbers remains to be seen.
While mine supply is likely to increase versus 2020, so is consumer demand for refined precious metals items such as fashion jewelry. The financial investment need for bullion will, as usual, be a wild card that could move the marketplace at the margins.
A related wild card is the covid19 virus. Epidemiologists hope something near herd resistance can be reached through mass vaccinations. However, the virus stays unforeseeable and might mutate into numerous new strains.
Virus dangers, political dangers, and inflation risks originating from the Federal Reserve‘s unrestrained printing money and the European Central Bank’s money flooding are all potential drivers for safe-haven investment purchasing of precious metals.
Silver’s 2020 Historic Low Could Turn to a Historic High in 2021
A massive rise of investment demand hit the bullion market this spring as panic gripped Wall Street and bargain hunters came out in numbers.
What occurred was a once-in-a-generation event. Some markets reached unprecedented extremes that defied centuries of recorded history.
For instance, crude oil futures traded deeply into the unfavorable area for many months. And silver got historically oversold versus gold, as the gold-silver ratio surged to as high as a never prior to seen 130:1.
Near the outright bottom of the market on March 17th, we wrote, “Never has silver been as low-cost to acquire in genuine terms as it is today. Never has the silver market traded so extremely detached from its fundamentals.”
That post recommended we had actually hit “peak fear”– out of which “a new uptrend in silver, and a corresponding constricting of the gold/silver ratio, can be expected to extend for many years.”
The very next day, March 18th, silver struck its outright low point for the year at $11.75/ per troy ounce. It went on to surge as much as nearly $30/per troy ounce in August.
A less remarkable 2021 may be the case. However, an international economic recovery and return to some form of normalcy would assist stimulate demand for commercial metals along with silver, platinum, and palladium.
A major trend set to accelerate in the months ahead is the move away from nonrenewable fuel sources and toward electrification.
Solar energy and battery technologies are experiencing explosive growth, and with that development comes a need for lots more copper, nickel, silver, and strategic metals. In fact, photovoltaic panels are among the fastest-growing sources of silver demand.
The “green” programs of the incoming Biden administration, paired with ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus being into the economy, could have the unexpected repercussion of stimulating metals markets.
Demand can grow a lot more quickly than supply. Some analysts expect to see broadening supply deficits for silver and platinum in 2021.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike McGlone, silver will head towards a new record high on improving principles and collecting technical strength.
Silver investors must anticipate some volatility and maybe some surprises on the way to an eventual brand-new high in dollar terms above $50 per troy ounce. It might take place next year. It might take a bit longer.
Having a long-lasting horizon is important to be able to participate in the full magnitude of a precious metals bull market.
A brand-new nominal high in silver will just be the very first major turning point in a booming market that might increase several times from here prior to being overvalued in genuine terms.
Silver prices have underperformed gold for many of the time since 2011. Nevertheless, if we take a look at the past we will see that silver outperforms gold most of the time. Annual ordinary gold prices climbed more than those of silver every year from 2012 to 2019 with the exemption of 2016, and also right into the initial quarter of this year. The gold: silver rate ratio increased to a record 126:1 in the center of March 2020. However, the silver-gold price ratio is now at 74:1.
And also past performance has actually been a rather regular sign in highlighting that silver costs surpass gold in a time when gold costs are rising sharply, a gold rate rally. As can be seen in the table listed below, silver prices have actually surpassed gold almost every time throughout the duration of climbing gold prices because gold prices were released from their dollar secure in 1968.
CPM Group has actually mentioned that silver prices out-perform gold ‘most of the moment’ when gold prices are climbing, or remain in a bull market. We were asked to examine the extent to which this held true and/or if silver constantly out-performed gold. The table right here reveals the information made use of in the research study.
The first set of silver price data makes use of the same dates as gold’s troughs and tops for gauging silver’s efficiency. The second set of silver price information is gauged from silver’s troughs and peaks that are close to or ‘in the very same cycle’ as the duration of gold cost increases. When utilizing silver’s troughs and peaks that were close to or ‘in the same cycle’ as the duration of gold cost boosts, silver constantly exceeded gold and also the percent gains were additionally a lot more powerful than when making use of the various other time structure.
What Contributes To Silver’s Out-Performance
There are numerous reasons silver often lags gold in starting a major upward rate relocation, but after that climbs faster in portion terms. One of the most essential is that the silver market is dramatically smaller than the gold market. In 2019, for example, the dollar value of the gold market was around 5.5 times that of silver. The marketplace dimension for silver and gold is defined here as the summation of yearly physical supply (included recently improved mine result, second healing from scrap, and when it comes to gold net authorities transactions in those years when the main field has been a web distributor of gold to the market), futures and options exchange trading volume, and also London Bullion market-clearing quantities.
Provided the smaller size of the silver market it takes much less effort for financiers to move the rate of the metal higher or lower. The smaller sized size of the marketplace basically increases volatility, which while supportive of outperformance contrasted to gold when prices are increasing additionally adds threat to the performance of silver as a stand-alone property and to any portfolio in which precious metals are included. (This is a topic reviewed in higher deepness in the second part of this collection.).
While the silver market is extremely fluid, it is fairly much less liquid than the gold market both in terms of deepness and also breadth, with fewer institutional investors, retail capitalists, bullion banks, and trading firms interested in the silver market versus gold. This lack of liquidity also contributes to sharper relocation silver about gold.
Silver Commonly Lags And After That Outshines Gold.
It has been continuously observed that the gains in silver rates commonly delay those of gold. For one, as stated in the past, even more capitalists and more kinds of investors get gold than silver.
In addition, silver capitalists consistently have actually shown a willingness to sell their silver when the positive view toward the metal discolors. En masse, financiers have consistently been net sellers of silver for long periods of time, showing themselves to be a lot more opportunistic than several yet not all gold capitalists.
Gold capitalists have a tendency to purchase less gold when the sentiment sours yet they just seldom and for a short duration of time transform into internet gold sellers as a team. Because silver investors will certainly sell silver, some of that silver will back up in market makers’ stocks. Since silver investors transform web vendors when belief sours, those stocks that were marketed earlier by capitalists get backed up in market manufacturer inventories and they come out sooner, maintaining the silver rate down much longer than gold, which does not face this obstacle.
Since silver has numerous commercial usages, economic distress injures the construction need for silver much more than for gold, which at first weighs on silver’s cost. Silver investors are and also have always been a more dominant force in affecting prices than producers. Generalist investors generally divert their interest towards silver just when gold starts to rise higher. This delayed focus from generalists likewise has a tendency to add to the lag in silver cost efficiency relative to gold.
What We Anticipate This Time.
From the end of 2019 with 14 August 2020, the cost of silver was up 46% basis the neighboring energetic Comex agreement. Rates have softened in current days: Silver prices had actually been up 54% on a negotiation cost basis on 10 August from the end of 2019.
Is Silver Playing Catch up or is it Out-Performing Gold?
After years of under-performance about gold, shown in the sharp boost in the gold: silver proportion, the silver cost is now playing catch up with gold. The proportion has actually slid reduced but is still at traditionally elevated degrees.
While the daily gold cost broke its past document and also already has made several brand-new ones, the price of silver at the height of its existing run up on 7 August 2020 at $29.91, still is 39% below its record high in 2011. That stated because, since July, the price of silver has actually outmatched that of gold, increasing 32% versus gold’s 7% gains over the same duration.
To date, silver is playing catch-up. For a brand-new capitalist getting in the market as a customer currently, silver is outperforming gold. For a veteran holder of these steels, silver is playing catch up. The solution lies not in the actual cost performance but in the point of view of private onlookers and capitalists.
Just How Sustainable is the Toughness?
Even though silver rates currently have actually risen greatly up until now this year, there is more potential for advantage in the brief to tool term. There are numerous essential resistance degrees to be crossed but a go-to silver’s past record ought to not be entirely unexpected.
Some visitors of this note will certainly examine the strength in silver costs offered the weakness in silver construction need arising from the decline in economic development. While fabrication demand no doubt plays a vital duty in the silver market, financial investment demand constantly has been the more dominant factor in affecting the rate of steel. Silver’s financial investment demand is driven by both expectations of manufacture demand for the steel and a bush against macroeconomic and also political dangers. Currently, the extra leading variable driving silver investment demand is its use as a hedge against danger.
Capitalist sentiment toward silver is turning extremely favorable. This favorable capitalist view is being driven by financiers searching for a bush to the increased political and economic threats worldwide combined with silver’s loved one value to gold.
Additionally, the recent break out of silver costs is most likely to attract generalist investors searching for relatively undervalued possessions to park their funds and the unfavorable return on the 10-year IDEAS definitely makes possessions like silver and gold attractive. The approaching U.S. election, Brexit, wearing away UNITED STATE– China relationships, and also the pandemic provide additional factors for investors to add silver and gold to their portfolios, which should aid sustain the strength in rates.
While silver costs can possibly increase back to their document levels, they might not be able to receive those high levels for a prolonged amount of time, with several of the much shorter term capitalists locking revenues and fabrication demand being hurt by the high cost. That claimed, while costs might not remain at those previous record levels for also long and will certainly come off they should not be anticipated to sink back to the degrees experienced in the last few years, and even earlier this year, in any type of hurry. The fallout from the pandemic should help to keep the prices of these steels at elevated degrees for a long period.
The vital to future silver, and also gold, rate trends lies much less in the degrees to which these steels cost already have actually increased and will certainly be much more a function of the underlying environmental aspects, financial, economic, political, social, public health, that press financiers to buy basically silver and gold. That will identify the height, more than any type of provided price level.
The pandemic and subsequent global lockdown have actually trembled the worldwide economy to the core, and the unfavorable economic fallout of these occasions is expected to have a long-term unfavorable impact on business real estate values, air travel, and also jobs as a result of the acceleration of automation, to name a few. Governments and also reserve banks worldwide have actually rushed to give assistance to the economic situation from this shock, which has actually injected a flood of money out there that is seeking return. The increased liquidity on the market has pushed prices into the unfavorable region, making non-interest-bearing possessions like silver and gold interesting capitalists. These all are expected to be essential aspects stimulating financial investment need and subsequently pressing silver prices up in the near to medium term. Additionally, while silver costs have actually lowered the deep discount at which they were too gold rates only recently, silver still is underestimated relative to gold. This suggests even more room for silver costs to rise in the medium term. The gold and also silver bull markets seem still in their early days; this is particularly the case for silver, which has started climbing sharply and has burst out of some crucial resistance levels only three weeks ago.
Where do the two Metals Fundamentals Factor in?
The currently sharp increase in gold and silver prices coupled with reasonably weak economic problems in the near to tool term ought to both weigh on construction need for these steels. Solid capitalist need for these metals in the face of the financial and political concerns dealing with the United States and also the globe need to a lot more than countered any weakness in fabrication demand for the steel in coming quarters.
On the supply side, it will certainly be years prior to the sharp gains in costs seen in current weeks and months that will affect mine supply. Miners also have become more careful concerning investing in growths after the last advancing market in these steels, offered their development of high financial obligation degrees and developing of poor quality possessions. So any type of positive effect of stronger prices on mine supply must not be anticipated for numerous years out. The secondary supply of these steels is normally more receptive to costs and economic conditions and need to be anticipated to climb. This will certainly be a headwind to prices yet not a variable that can drive costs greatly lower.
Exactly How to Navigate Around Silver Investment and more
Capitalists require to be careful. While the outside world is motivating capitalists to stockpile silver, the reality is that large parts of the financier’s anxiousness driving investors into silver can disappear swiftly. While we state that the price levels are lesser than those exogenous factors, high costs due and will certainly have an impact on rates.
CPM’s view is that costs of silver and gold are likely to rise for many years. We specified in 2000 that we saw a ‘gold renaissance’ that would bring much more capitalists in more parts of the globe into the market purchasing even more gold for a longer amount of time at greater rates than ever before. There was an upward change in the financial investment demand curve for gold and silver on a semi-permanent basis.
We claimed that gold and silver enjoyed a secular booming market that would certainly in 2014 if not decades. When costs peaked in the Global Financial Crisis and Great Economic Crisis of 2007– 2011, we forecasted intermittent descending relocate prices that could last 3 to 5 years within the context of that secular advancing market, saying we anticipated rates to return to increasing eventually after 2015– 2017, because every one of the financial and political problems that were driving capitalists to acquire gold stayed un-repaired, and oftentimes had intensified and would intensify further.
All of this still Appears a Valid and Logical Expectation for Silver and Gold.
That claimed, there plainly are extremely unsupportable remarks about silver and also gold circulating the market by precious metals and mining advertising and marketing groups, followers in the faith that states the financial imbalances that have actually built up since the 1970s can just be dealt with by a disastrous failure of the global economic system, and others who relatively have neglected silver and also gold market fundamentals, including the massive quantity of silver and gold formerly gotten by investors that can cost massive revenues throughout periods when the financial and political atmosphere look a little far better.
This is what happened from 2012 up until around 2017, much to the irritation of the believers and marketing representatives. It needs to be anticipated to take place once again.
In this Article, I will Answer all Gold IRA Frequently Asked Questions
Are Gold IRA’s Secure?
Gold is a physical possession. Because of this, there is always the chance of burglary. Even putting your gold in an insured vault does not suggest it can’t be taken through break-in or fraudulence. Make sure the business stores its gold in a legitimate depository, such as Delaware Vault or Brinks. Do your research and also make certain the depository where your precious metals are stored, fulfills your standards. You need to be certain your gold is safe and secure.
Is a Gold Individual Retirement Account an Excellent Investment?
Supplementing your profile with a small quantity of gold can be an excellent investment for some people. It’s a smart means to variety, yet you probably should not place your whole retirement plan into a gold IRA. Gold investments won’t pay dividends like supplies, but they’re a way to hedge your bets against the rising cost of living. Typically, talking, gold prices move in the opposite instructions from standard paper investments.
Some also see gold as a typical investment in a globe of extremely challenging cash actions. You’ll see ups as well as downs when looking at gold prices over the last couple of decades, yet they generally trend up, especially throughout an economic downturn. A perfect example of this was the 2008 monetary crisis– the marketplace started favoring gold when other financial investment returns were going down. A monetary adviser can aid you to choose where gold prices are heading at any kind of provided time.
What is a Gold Individual Retirement Account Rollover?
A gold Individual Retirement Account rollover allows financiers to relocate their retirement financial savings into a gold-backed Individual Retirement Account. Brokers that help with rollovers execute the task and also keep your initial financial investments tax-free. Many brokers supply no-fee rollovers, so ask if you aren’t sure of their regulations. You can rollover the list below sorts of retirement accounts:
Traditional Individual Retirement Account
SEP or SIMPLE Individual Retirement Account
401(k) or 403(k)
TSP (Thrift Savings Strategies).
Can I Take Physical Property of Gold in my IRA?
No, you can’t take physical possession of gold in your Individual Retirement Account. It needs to be kept in an IRS-approved facility or bank. You could be based on high charges if you save gold from your Individual Retirement Account in your house. At the end of your IRA term, you can liquidate your gold possessions for cash money or acquire your gold scot-free.
Can I Utilize my IRA to Buy Gold?
You can convert your IRA funds by withdrawing them. Ensure you recognize the terms of your Individual Retirement Account before withdrawing funds, though. Some accounts are subject to charges or taxes for very early withdrawals.
Can I have more than one Individual Retirement Account?
Yes. You can keep a standard IRA as well as also open up a gold Individual Retirement Account or various other precious metal IRA.
Can I Include Gold I Currently Have Right into my Gold Individual Retirement Account?
Regrettably, no. Even if your gold or other rare-earth element fulfills pureness standards determined by the IRS, including gold you presently have to your Individual Retirement Account violates Internal Revenue Service guidelines. Like other Individual Retirement Account accounts, gold IRAs call for custodians to handle the accounts, consisting of the handling of gold.
Gold and also other rare-earth elements in your gold IRA should fulfill IRS standards. You can buy antiques on your own and keep them, however not in regard to a gold Individual Retirement Account.
What is IRA-Eligible Gold?
Gold needs to fulfill certain requirements established by the IRS to be qualified for use in a gold IRA account. Qualified gold products satisfy minimum fineness requirements of 99.5% purity, are not considered very collectible, and also come from a U.S. mint or an approved international mint. According to the Federal Profession Payment, bullion metals are crafted right into pure bars or coins:
Gold bars:IRA-eligible gold can be found in pure 24-karat bars that evaluate anywhere from an ounce to 400 ounces. It has to have a trademark from a qualified refinery or assayer.
Gold coins: Gold bullion coins are produced for financial investment purposes. Know that proof coins– consisting of unusual coins– are for gathering, not spending.
An investor always wonders whether he/she has made the right decision. In this article I will analyze the importance of a gold IRA investment and why invest in a gold IRA. All financial experts have one basic rule and they always follow it. Never put all eggs in one basket. And a self-directed gold IRA is the investment that will definitely ensure your eggs are not all in one basket.
What is Gold IRA Investment
A gold IRA investment is an individual retirement account, an account that functions the same way as a regular IRA account however, instead of holding paper assets, it holds physical bullion coins or bars.
Gold Could Save your IRA
You may regret if you choose a conventional IRA or 401(k) investment with a bank or brokerage firm. The oncoming financial crisis is expected to decimate traditional investment assets. Stocks, bonds, and so on will see their prices drop substantially. That means your, life savings could perish overnight and in the end, there won’t be enough savings for you to retire.
Since most IRA accounts are invested in traditional assets, and since all these assets move downwards or upwards together, (correlated assets) there must be another asset that does the opposite.
On the other side gold is a non-correlated asset. (an asset whose value isn’t tied to larger fluctuations in the traditional market) In fact, gold always does well in times of crisis. Call it a financial crisis, recession, geopolitical tensions, war, covid-19, trade war, whatever the case is, gold not only maintains its value but also sees significant gains.
Dot Com Crash2001
Stock Market Decline
Gold Price Results
Gold Outperformed Stocks By Ratio
More Reasons for a Gold IRA
1-Diversification. There is no doubt that IRAs are suited for portfolio diversification in case, economic and world news cause another drop in the stock market.
2-Protects your investment from inflation. Gold is a hedge against inflation. During the years of the highest inflation after world war 2 (1946, 1974, 1975, 1979, 1980), the average real return of the Dow Jones Industrial Average was -13,33% compared to 130,5% for gold. Now in 2020, we expect inflation to come back. The never-ending money printing by the Fed and the ECB’s stimulus program will trigger a worldwide interest rates explosion.
3-Gold is a tangible asset. Traditional investing is putting money in the stock market, buying certificates of deposit, or buying bonds. These are not tangible assets. In fact, it could take time for you to convert these investments into cash. For example, if you invest in CDs or bonds you may have to wait for a number of years before you receive a return. If you want to terminate your CDs investment and wish to withdraw early, you might have to pay a penalty. This is not the case with gold or silver as you can convert your coins or bars into cash immediately, as the demand for precious metals is constant.
4-Increasing demand for gold and silver industrial use. Both precious metals have a growing demand for industrial use. In particular, they are used in smartphones, computers, medicine, and nanotechnology. And if we consider the massive precious metals demand for jewelry, only then we get the full picture.
5-Gold is not a claim on someone else’s liability. Gold has never lost its value for mismanagement, corruption, theft, war, etc. Stocks have. Also, there has never been and never be a haircut to gold as it’s been happening with debts and savings.
6-Geopolitical uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions are growing, the Middle East is still in turmoil. Syria and Iran are under Russian control, and the United States have lost their credibility. Hong Kong tensions never stop, Brexit deal, and North Korea continues to upset with its unruly behavior.
7-The US-China trade war. There is no doubt the trade war between the two superpowers has interrupted the markets and global economy. The uncertainty these actions cause is good news for gold.
8-The weak dollar. Gold moves in the opposite direction of the American dollar and the dollar have never been weaker. The never-ending money printing will cause the dollar to continue its downward trend. I am afraid the US dollar will be weak for a long time.
9-The covid-19 caused crisis. The coronavirus has caused an unprecedented financial and economic crisis. The impact of the crisis on the global economy is still unknown. However, what we know is that the economic downturn in Western economies during the second and the third quarters of the year will be between at least -15%.
A traditional IRA fund consists of traditional assets. But when you open a self-directed IRA, you are empowered to make your future secure after retirement. The experts will help you to make investment decisions and choose a precious metal coin, bullion, and bars to invest in.
A traditional IRA fund consists of traditional assets. But when you open a self-directed IRA, you are empowered to make your future secure after retirement. The experts will help you to make investment decisions and choose a precious metal coin, bullion, and bars to invest in.
Remember these people will have to handle your savings, therefore they must have a proven track record, and a reputation to follow.
More Gold IRA Benefits
Flexibility & Freedom
Great Growth Potential
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There is no doubt that we are going through uncertain times. There is an unprecedented economic crisis on the way. Businesses are already closing, the stock market is overvalued and expected to suffer heavy losses, the coronavirus is here to stay and the vaccine will not be available till March or April 2021.
In addition, unemployment is rising and there is social unrest in the community. People are angry because of the economic uncertainty and they do not trust politicians.
A gold IRA is the right investment now. It will ensure that your savings will not perish overnight due to the oncoming crisis.
Many people in the community are now wondering whether capitalism is still a healthy system, or whether it has changed for the worst, and whether capitalism faces its biggest crisis ever.
We are living in a world that can not survive without a constant budget deficit, can not survive without cash printing, can not survive without negative interest rates, there is something extremely rotten. In fact, we are living in a world that accumulates government and public debt, a world that gives us a false sense of fulfillment by spreading around worthless currency. Well, this world is not only rotten but also disgusting! Yes, it stinks of lies, deception as well as ethical decadence.
Capitalism Faces its Biggest Crisis Ever
Why does not anyone stands up to warn the community where we are heading? Well, for the straightforward reason that no politician can tell the truth. Since if they did, they wouldn’t be chosen. The principal function of any politician is to buy or obtain votes and as a result, they can never speak the fact.
Additionally, there are so many beneficial interests with endless rewards. The money men that regulate the monetary system have all to obtain, from developing false markets, false money, and false interest rates.
The Reality Never Dies
The Roman philosopher and also statesman Seneca said: “Veritas Nunquam Perit” (The Truth Never Perishes). That could very well hold however it can be suppressed for a very long time as we are seeing now all over the world.
Let us initially think about the greatest lie which is cash. For 5,000 years, the only genuine cash has been gold (and sometimes silver). Whenever the financial system has differed from that basic principle, by creating false money, it has finished in disaster for the world, whether that has been done with silver coins full of zinc or copper or by just printing paper money.
Complete Disaster of the Currency System to Follow
Which is where we are heading currently. A tragic course of events was triggered when Nixon closed the gold window on August 15th, 1971. Ever since international debt has taken off and also all money has imploded. Financial obligation, derivatives, and unfunded liabilities have gone from workable amounts in 1971 to over $2 quadrillion today. As well as every single money has shed 97-99% in actual terms.
We are currently at the point when we will certainly not be able to change the training course of either of the two. The environment is figured out by really long cycles that humans have no impact on. Now we just have to allow it to take its course which will be devastating for the whole world.
So why is nobody seeing what is taking place and why is nobody taking on the claim that the Emperor is completely naked?
The truth is unpleasant and painful yet it does never die.
It is an indisputable reality that essentially all the fiat cash that is printed by federal governments, central banks as well as commercial banks is pointless as well as for that reason incorrect.
If a federal government prints cash out of nothing to cover deficit spending, that cash has NO worth given since all the jobs needed to develop it was to push a button on a computer system.
We likewise recognize that the money has no worth because no financial institution or central financial institution is prepared to pay interest in deposit accounts. Instead, because cash is worthless, these bankers desire to be paid to hold the money. There is no reason to pay interest in worthless money.
There is an Abundance of Worthless Money
As well as when a financial institution receives a $1,000 down payment and after that lends out that very same cash 10 times or even more, that cash is likewise worthless, considering that it has set you back $0 to provide the funding.
It is the same with a credit card company, or car funding, they all concern counterfeit money developed by the touch of a switch.
For the ones who don’t recognize what this implies, let me describe it. Allow us to begin with the bubble’s possession. When the worldwide stock, property, and also various other bubble asset markets stand out, all these properties will certainly lose a minimum of 95% of their value in actual terms. The best way to calculate real terms is certainly gold because that is the only cash that has actually survived and also preserved its purchasing power for hundreds of years.
And also, if we take a look at the financial obligation bubble, global financial debt goes to the very least $270 trillion. Yet when the financial obligation bubble stands out, so will other liabilities like the $1.5 quadrillion of derivatives. So when the financial obligation bubble pops, basically all that fiat money ends up being entirely useless. No person can repay it as well as no one wants to acquire it.
I recognize that the above two paragraphs are an extremely streamlined description of what will certainly take place over the coming years. However, this is the ugly truth.
These occasions will undoubtedly not take place in one go. They will certainly most probably begin with the securities market very first collapsing, which will certainly put pressure on credit score markets. A lot more QE will certainly adhere to yet that will just have a short-term impact. Even more collisions, even more, cash printing, the rising cost of living, devaluation, credit report defaults, company closures, and also bank defaults.
We had the first clear signals from numerous significant reserve banks, that something was rotten in the worldwide monetary system already in August, when the Fed, ECB, and BOJ all proclaimed that they would do what it requires to sustain the system.
Quantitative Easing and Money Printing the Same
In September the Fed launched overnight Repos of $75 billion boosts to $100 billion. They additionally took on two-week Repos of $ 30 billion rising to $60 billion. Adhering to that the Fed has now announced that they will certainly start QE of $60 billion each month. We should not call it QE according to the Fed. So allow us just call it money printing since that is what it is.
The President of the Minneapolis Fed stated: “This is not about changing the stance of monetary policy. This is about making sure markets are functioning. This is kind of just a plumbing issue.” He is right, it is a plumbing concern. However, the issue is that the economic system is leaking like a filter without the possibility of connecting all the openings.
Between the end of 2017 and also 2019 the Fed reduced its balance sheet by $700 billion from $4.5 trillion to $3.8 trillion. As always, the Fed has no idea whatsoever. The issue is that the system will not make it through with even more cash printing either.
Central Banks Introduced Unprecedented Economic Stimulus
The world’s largest central banks had no other option to fight the covid-19 caused crisis than to introduce further economic stimulus amounting to trillions of dollars. It was the Fed and the US government first with the ECB-European commission next, and all the other major western economies and central banks to follow.
Yes, the system is rotten and is currently starting to smell. The activities by the central banks specifically in the last couple of weeks smells of panic. The problem with JP Morgan or Financial Institution of America, the ECB, or possibly the Fed is supporting the bankrupt Deutsche Financial institution? We will most likely quickly learn where the greatest stress is.
On top of the bank issues, the company’s financial debt is obtaining riskier day by day. The financing of firms like We Work and Merlin, are clear indications of just how hazardous this market has ended up being.
Central banks are already trying to deal with the fires, most people are not aware these fires exist. There is a concern whether the central banks will be able to contain these fires or whether they will spread like wildfires.
The Decadence Started in 1971
US financial debt back in 1971 was $400 billion versus $26 trillion today, a “plain” 55x boost. US GDP was $1.2 trillion in 1971 versus $26 trillion today. A 55x boost in US financial debt in the last 48 years has just generated a 17x boost in GDP.
The US economy is in trouble which is not surprising because never-ending money printing of pointless paper money, can not create real growth and wealth whatsoever. Its only effect on the economy is to create the stock market bubble.
It is not just the US that is in this setting. Since taking away the gold support of the dollar in 1971, offered all countries an incentive to print money and increase credit.
The UK Example
I do keep in mind the beginning of the damage of money. Moving later on to the UK, I saw the pound collapsed against the Swiss Franc from CHF 10 in 1972 to Swiss Franc or CHF 1.20 today, an 88% loss of the extra pound.
A period of economic mismanagement and political turmoil in the UK in the 1970s started it all. The annual rising cost of living was 15-17% for 7 years and interest rates got to over 20%.
The economic system was moments from breaking down in 2008 throughout the Great Financial Dilemma. Eleven years later on, worldwide financial debt has doubled and danger has increased greatly.
Central lenders are conscious that the global economic situation is currently standing at a crossroads. The course was laid by them many decades back and now there is no way back.
The US and the Gold Standard
August 2020 remains in many ways comparable to August 1971. America was at that time behind-the-scenes. The country was under pressure after the costly Vietnam battle, as well as the gold standard, which stopped the United States from cheating the system by printing cash. The remainder of the world saw the US’s precarious situation as well as began marketing bucks. To recover their position, Nixon saw no other way than to take the buck off the gold standard, and this was the start of 50 years of global cash printing, and also credit score growth on a humongous scale.
Nixon’s August 1971 choice has brought about a dilemma of extraordinary proportions. Still, most people can see that we are currently at the point of “a final and also total catastrophe of the currency system included” as von Mises stated.
This August is not one solitary event like in 1971 yet a variety of very clear indicators that all reserve banks are worrying about. Every major reserve bank is currently revealing a level of concern that is extraordinary. They are all telling us that there will certainly be unrestricted money publishing incorporated with no or negative interest rates. This will certainly not clear up half a century of reckless monetary mismanagement.
What Nixon started will now be finished off by current governments as well as main lenders in the most magnificent money printing bonanza, leading to hyperinflation as well as a collapse of the economic system.
Until now, over 40% of worldwide bonds currently generate less than 1% and over $16 trillion well worth of bonds have an unfavorable interest or negative interest.
Negative Interest Policy is Insane
A negative rate of interest prices is of course complete insanity. It will certainly come to be also much more intriguing when home loan rates go to minus 25% so after a few years the financial obligation has been paid by the financial institution!
Us Rates to Decline Unless
95% of international bonds are now listed below the Federal Finances price. Since that rate is 2.5%, this is a short-lived scenario. US rates are likely to decline dramatically throughout the autumn to absolutely nothing unless the devastating results of the neverending money printing start to take place. That will cause a lower dollar and greater gold. US stocks will certainly decrease despite lower prices.
Lower rates are no longer seen by securities market financiers as helpful for markets as a sign of financial difficulty in advance.
Powel Trump and the US-China trade war
Fed Chief Powell simply stated that the “Economy is in a beneficial area”. You ask yourself where that area is, considering that there is nothing good regarding the United States economic climate currently. As well as it appears that Powell doesn’t think his very own words given that in the same breath he claims that there are “substantial threats”.
So the Tit for Tat video game between the US and also China proceeds and what is specific is that everybody is a loser in a trade battle. Trump won’t give in and neither will China. As they play their video games, the global economy will certainly suffer and so will a breakable global economic situation. Global trade is currently down and I am afraid things could get worse in the autumn.
Trump is most likely to win this video game over Powell. Trump has stated that rates need to drop by 1% now. Hence, we are assured to see a lot lower US rates and a rapidly falling buck throughout the fall.
Investors set to Suffer Big Losses
Regretfully 99% of investors will not understand that they need to be out of stocks and move into gold, till their wealth has been wiped out. All stock investors will believe that central banks will certainly support them once more. But as I have described over, this time support will certainly fall short as we begin a secular bear market in stocks, and the global economic crisis will last a very long time as well as lead to massive wide range destruction.
That the global economic situation for the last 100 years was reliant on credit scores as well as printed cash, is not a new miracle paradigm but a sign of a diseased system. The never-ending credit and the constant printing of worthless money are about to end. In a corrupt way, it is virtually paradoxical that the trigger for finishing this sick financial system would certainly be a pandemic disease.
Social Discontent and Anger to Come
Currently, the world remains in a situation when all of those aspects will possibly come to pass. We already have the recession and also we have a condition. There is no significant famine yet however, this is most likely to come. Social discontent and conflict are possible repercussions of these troubles. Starving and angry people will stand against their leaders as well as against the elite. The differences in income, as well as the huge gap that separates the wealthy and the poor, have created an illogical scenario. This is basically without exception just how every change starts.
There is a lot of anger in the community. People aren’t happy at all. They are wondering what on earth is going on with their taxes, they are wondering why the money they earn is never enough, they are wondering why social inequalities have increased, they are wondering where all this abundance of (fake) money is going, and so on.
The Money that does not Exist
Central banks and governments are currently printing limitless amounts of cash to help small and also big organizations as well as individuals. It is a program terrific in that every person gets aid, but no one asks where is the money coming from.
No one stresses that THERE IS NO CASH. The $ 100s of billions as well as trillions that are being provided to the needy do not exist. They are just produced out of thin air. Because the situation started in the very early autumn of 2019 with the Repos, the Fed’s balance sheet has increased by practically $3 trillion to $6.5 T. Yet this is just the start. The forecast is that it will get to $9T in June as well as possibly $12T a couple of months later on.
What we have to keep in mind is that this situation did not start now however, in 2006 when the Fed’s annual report was $800K. By 2012 it had gone to $3T. In the following few months, the equilibrium sheet will certainly blow up by 3-4x to $12T.
In the present year, the US can quickly get to a shortage in unwanted of $4T, taking the financial debt to $28T. If we just go back 3 months, who would certainly have thought a Fed equilibrium sheet reaching $12T as well as a US financial obligation of $28T? They don’t even do that because if they had, they would have known that the United States financial debt has doubled every 8 years because of 1981.
The United States is likely to have a debt of $40T in 2025 however, that number is most possibly a low number. Then we are going to see failings not simply in the economy but also in the financial system. That is the danger the economic system is currently facing as well, as we are currently in a stage when the surprises will be much even worse than anybody can think of.
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Back to the Future
It all began with private lenders taking control of the financial system in 1913 when they established the Fed for their very own benefit. For practically 60 years their power grew slowly however, then in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window, all hell broke shed.
The United States currently begun what is currently 60 years of shortage investing. Every solitary year given that 1960, the United States is running at a loss. (deficit)
Because the main purpose of political leaders is to purchase votes, Nixon had no choice back in 1971. The United States had currently at that point been running a shortage for ten years. With a gold standard, it is necessary to run a sincere economic system without deficits. Or else you lose all your gold as well as the currency breaks down. Given that Nixon had no intent to run excess, he might not be connected by a gold requirement and also consequently abolished the gold backing of the dollar. The consequences were of course tragic as well as the dollar has actually fallen since.
Back then $33 could buy you an ounce of gold nowadays you need well over $1900. This is how much the dollar has depreciated.
Considering that the US began running deficits 60 years ago, total United States debt has actually gone from $800 billion to $26 trillion today. What we are seeing is a fantasy world all built on financial debt, federal, state, customer, home mortgage, car, trainee, and so on. The checklist is limitless just how to produce phony wealth simply based on the financial obligation.
The US is currently coming back to reality which will certainly be the biggest shock. The trillions of fake cash and fake assets will now implode and also so will certainly the US economy.
What the world has experienced in the last 100 years is fake capitalism. It more looks like Voodoo capitalism. Central bankers, led by the Fed, have successfully taken on Mayer Amschel Rothschild’s philosophy: “Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws.”
By doing this, they have placed a spell on the international economic system as well as lumbering it with debt that might never be paid back. They are instrumental in developing a debt-plagued world economic situation as well as then they are the only ones who can come to the rescue and “save” it.
A debt-burdened world can never be saved by even more financial debt. Next, we will certainly see limitless cash printing that squashes money as well as leads to depressionary run-away inflation.
Inflation is on the Way
The reckless money printing by the Fed is expected to bring an inflation crisis. Analysts are convinced that unprecedented money printing could increase inflation substantially. That means your cash will lose value. For example, if you are planning to take a holiday to an exotic location with your retirement savings, chances are that you will not be able to afford it. You could probably end up at a cheap resort nearby.
Business Collapse and Unemployment.
Market bulls argue the market is already recovering. Shops are opening, factories are back in business, restaurants are opening too, stocks are holding up, and so on.
They are wrong. Unfortunately, unemployment levels are massive and still growing. Several airlines already declared bankruptcy. Some of them are Avianca from Colombia, Virgin Australia, Trans States airlines from the US, Compass airlines also from the US, and many others. Rolls Royce announced 9000 job losses in the UK, Nissan shuts down its Barcelona plant in Spain with 3000 redundancies, and another 25000 jobs indirectly threatened.
In the US the news is not good either. The country has lost 20,6 million jobs since mid-March, resulting in an unemployment rate of 14,7% a level not seen since the great depression in the 1930s. I am afraid, there will be more business collapse and more unemployed in the following months.
The recession is going to be bigger than the 2008 recession. It will take years for the world economy to recover not months or weeks. The numbers are already massive and still growing. As I just said, the economy is not going to be back to where it was within a year that’s for sure. So why is the stock market still high? What is that’s still driving equity prices? It is the Fed’s liquidity.
Stocks and Bonds set to Collapse
In genuine terms, all bubble possessions will now collapse. Actual terms indicate secure acquiring power and evaluate against gold. We will see supplies, bonds, and also residential or commercial property decline by 90-100% against gold. In nominal terms, stocks may go up at first with hyperinflation. That will just be imaginary gains.
Supplies worldwide dropped initially by around 40% and also have currently recouped half of that loss as stock capitalists have been buying the dips in the hope that central banks will certainly save them yet afterward. Yet they will certainly quickly have their next shock. Markets might begin their next leg down already in the coming week. Or it could take 2-3 weeks. What is clear is that a profane bearish market has begun which has a very long way to go.
Gold is Still Undervalued
For twenty years I have discussed the value of riches conservation in the form of physical gold. Throughout that time gold is up 6-7 times depending on which currency you rate it with. Still, much less than 0.5% of world economic possessions are in gold.
Gold is still exceptionally undervalued regarding the growth of the international cash supply. It is still possible to obtain gold, yet the physical market is under real pressure.
This is an outrageous circumstance that will not last long. Both the Comex and the LBMA are under huge pressure which quickly will lead to substantial distribution problems and also a significant cost squeeze. The home window of opportunity to acquire physical gold at current costs will soon close.
Keep in mind that gold is actual physical wealth in addition to an insurance policy against a monetary system that is unlikely to make it through. Gold can still be bought with miscalculated fiat cash at prices significantly below its genuine value, however, not for too long.
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Within a month, gold’s price has reached all-time highs breaking all resistance. The yellow metal managed to break through the 2011 historical highs of $1.920. Everything is set for gold to continue it’s run and market analysts wonder if this is going to be the end of it, or if gold’s epic rally will continue.
According to World Gold Council, in the first six months of the year, there was $39,5 billion invested in gold ETF’s another all-time record high for gold. Only in June, investors added 104 tonnes of gold adding their total investments to a record high of 3.261 tonnes. The appetite for gold increased in July. As stated by the bank of America, there was $3,8 billion invested in gold ETFs in the week between 15 and 22 of June. It was the highest amount of money ever invested in gold within a week.
If we integrate the latest data with the old historical data, we will come to an interesting conclusion regarding gold’s future price.
Gold’s best year for inflows was 2009 when there was a 646 tons increase. This record is already overthrown and that was done during the first six months of the year.
The amount of gold bought by the ETF’s is colossal. It is larger than the amount of gold bought by the central banks for the years 2018 and 2019 together. It amounts to 45% of total world production for the first six months of 2020.
In 2009 when there was a record 646 tons of gold sold, the yellow metal went from $880 per troy ounce to $1.226. Two years later, gold surged to $1.920. Are we on the same path again, or not?
Every time there is a gold surge I always get asked the same question. Is now the right time to liquidate? My answer is: Do the reasons responsible for gold’s performance so far still apply?
Need for an Investment Refuge
The main reasons for gold’s price rally are:
1-The never-ending covid-19 nightmare. We have seen the second wave of the virus spreading like a wildfire all over the world. In the States, the first wave isn’t over yet and things do not look good at all. There is not a single day without bad news. Record company losses, unemployment, companies shut down, zero consumer confidence, and so on.
2-The worsening trade relations between the two superpowers US and China are also bad news.
3-It will take almost a year before a vaccine or proper medicine that deals with the virus is produced. The news from many research centers is not encouraging. For example, a study from the Frankfurt hospital in Germany shows that a number of people who recovered from the virus have developed certain changes in their heart muscle, which make them susceptible to a heart attack. That means, there will be added strain to health centers for a long time after the end of the pandemic.
During the last few years, many central banks acquired vast amounts of gold. In addition, the trend to “bring gold back home” has also been an indication of the coming changes to globalization and international cooperation.
When central banks buy vast amounts of gold, there is always a reason. They usually do it when they expect inflation to rise. Another reason will be because they expect high monetary losses.
Gold will help a western economy to deal with tougher economic conditions and a possible currency crisis due to money printing and a repeated quantitative easing policy. For the rest of the world, gold buying is a way to keep some control over their own currencies.
We have seen countries such as Russia, Turkey, China, India, Iran and so on to acquire gold and secure it at “home” in their own facilities. Gold to them offers independence from the dollar, in case of a numismatic and a trade war. Gold gives their central banks the same opportunities with the western banks.
Low Yields and Negative Interest Rates
The bond market now is trading at very low yields and in many cases at negative yields. Negative yields and low interest rates result in low spending power. As a result, gold becomes attractive to investors because it is considered to be a store of value and rightly so.
The fundamentals for the gold rally are there. There is no reason for the rally to stop. I expect some consolidation to take place soon but I do no see gold slowing down. Gold feeds from uncertain and troublesome times and we are seeing that right now. Nevertheless, acting with caution and always be prudent without placing all eggs into one basket, is the best way to invest in today’s uncertain times.
The low yields, the negative interest rates and the stock market downturn, are threatening many retirement funds with extinction. Thus, the savings of a lifetime for good honest Americans are already slashed. To avoid further losses it is advisable to change your IRA fund into a self directed gold IRA fund.
PS. Stick around, I will be following soon with more
Metal producers are reducing gold production due to government restrictions in response to covid-19 concerns. Coronavirus also caused all European precious metal refineries to shut down and disrupted transportation. 1/3 of NYSE listed gold mines have withdrawn 2020 production guidance. The South African government imposed a 3-week shutdown of the country, which means temporary mine closures.
Metal Mines Shutdown
In particular, South African prime minister Cyril Ramaphosa has imposed a 21-day lock down in all mining activities, after a surge in coronavirus cases. South Africa is a leading producer of metals and minerals such as, silver, platinum palladium, coal, gold and iron core. To be precise, 70% of global platinum comes from South Africa along with 40% of palladium.
Gold mining a labor intensive mining industry, is a potential hotbed of infection among the thousands of miners, who often work in confined spaces, with some living nearby in cramped accommodation. Meanwhile, furnaces and underground mines will undergo a maintenance program, to make sure mines will be in a condition to reopen in the future.
In addition, many more mines around the world paused production. For instance, the Mponeng mine in Argentina, the Cero Corona mine in Peru, the Salares Norte in Chile and many more others. Furthermore, global mining giants Anglo-American and Rio Tinto have reported production slowdowns, all due to coronavirus related restrictions.
The miners lock down isn’t the only reason for precious metals supply shortage. Coronavirus, has caused all European gold refineries to shut down due to government orders. With online shops out of stock and many of the passenger planes that move bullion grounded, physical gold is becoming harder to track down.
Right now, anyone looking to buy physical gold has an issue. The supply problem due to transport and processing capacity has been worsened by a surge in demand, as investors seek the safe heaven asset amid the global oncoming economic crisis.
Fewer people are selling gold back to dealers despite the excellent gold prices. Those who want to sell are finding difficult because of restrictions on travel and stocks.
Print More Money
The response by politicians and central banks to print huge amounts of currency, (money) in order to keep their economies out of trouble, will cause the intrinsic value of money to fall. That means consumer purchasing potential will be reduced. In other words, you will be buying less with your dollar, euro, pound etc.
The shortage in gold supply trigerred by miner’s shutdown, the European refineries closures, transportation problems and the never ending appetite for gold, will result in a price surge. All other precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium will follow too. In addition, the out of control money printing policy adopted by central banks ensures the precious metal price boost, is here to stay. If you are thinking of buying physical gold, now is the time, as there are reports of shortages in some coins, Krugerrands from South Africa and Maple leafs from Canada.
Last week, the stock market suffered its largest weekly loss, since the 2008 financial crisis amid worries that one of the largest economic expansions in history may be coming to an end. Many analysts blame the coronavirus for the market downturn.
In particular, the Dow Jones suffered the largest fall in history in a week, a loss of $12,36%. The US stock market lost $3,58 trillion dollars and the European markets lost $1,5 trillion, all that in a weeks’ time. Oil dropped 14,35%, from $58,5% to $50,01.
The Federal Reserve is ready to act, as it issued a statement affirming that the central bank would use all its tools and “act as appropriate to support the economy”.
The signs are there, the economic fallout is starting to take hold as retailers importers and home builders are facing delays in shipments from China. It looks like there will be disruptions to the global supply chain. And if this is not enough, people do not go to restaurants, people do not go to the movies, people do not go out, people do not travel, all this, to avoid contracting the virus.
There is no doubt there will be an economic downturn but, we still do not know to what extent. Unfortunately, the favorable scenario, that predicts the virus remains largely confined in China and thus affects Chinese factory production, collapses.
The coronavirus is now present in more than sixty-five countries and almost out of control in China, South Korea, IRAN, and Italy. It is not a Chinese issue, it is a world issue now and its effect on global growth will be devastating.
Evidence of the Economic Fallout
Toll Brothers, the luxury home builder, said home sales to Chinese buyers had been postponed and shipments of fixtures from China delayed. The shoemaker Steve Madden said some shipments would be delayed for three weeks, as its Chinese factories struggle to operate with fewer workers.
Already there is a drop in tourism, as people are afraid to travel. Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and many Asian countries are suffering from a huge drop in tourists from China. With tourism, airlines are suffering heavy losses with many flights running at a loss.
Technology is expected to take a large blow along with car manufacturing. There are many car manufacturers complaining about car part delays from Chinese factories.
Moreover, there are signs that American consumers, they are those who drive the economy, were becoming increasingly uneasy.
A modern economy needs optimism and willingness to spend. But in the last week, investors came to terms with the new economic outlook where corporate profits will stop growing and in many cases will be replaced by losses.
Many investors expect the Fed to step in and act quickly-cut interest rates in the face of coronavirus news and market downturns. Even President Trump intervened on Friday and actually said that he hoped the Fed would step in. Soon the Fed issued a statement reassuring investors that is ready to act.
The 2008 Demand Shock
The 2008 great recession was largely a “demand shock” as a number of banks collapsed, home prices plunged and trillions of dollars in household wealth were wiped out. People and businesses suddenly had less money to spend, causing the economy to fall into a deep recession.
The 2020 Supply Shock
I am afraid lowering interest rates will not be enough. It is not a coronavirus threat anymore, it is a supply threat.
China the world’s factory struggles to get back to work. Imagine, if every factory and office produces 10% less than it did last year. This is very difficult to fix, even if you put more money into people’s pockets, it will not make up for closed stores and factories that aren’t operating.
Nouriel Roubini’s Prediction
Nouriel Roubini, the well-known economist, who predicted the 2008 recession, and head of the Roubini Macro Associates, predicts that the coronavirus will have severe economic repercussions for the global economy. That was a couple of days ago when he was interviewed for a German magazine called “Der Spiegel”.
In particular, he says that the markets have not come to terms with the extent of the effect the coronavirus is going to have on the global economy. According to Roubini, the markets are making three mistakes.
1-This is not an epidemic contained in China, but a pandemic.
2-It will take a long time to contain and the politicians haven’t come to terms with the huge impact it will have.
3-The markets will take a steep dive and it is not certain after that dive a strong recovery will follow.
The Chinese recovery will not be enough to cover the expected 6% growth for this year. Nouriel Roubini expects the Chinese economic growth to be between 2,5% and 4%.
We are Entering the Long Overdue Recession
As I said before people won’t go to the movies, people won’t go to restaurants, people won’t go to live events, people won’t go on holidays and in the worst-case people won’t go to work. It is already happening in the 10million city of Wuhan in China. In France, the famous Louvre museum is closed and in football-crazy Italy, the derby between Juventus and Inter will take place with no spectators.
During the SARS epidemic, China was only 4% of the world economy. Today, China is 20% of the world economy. In addition, globalization back then was not as deep as it is right now. Furthermore, China’s contribution to world growth back then was 20%. Nowadays, China’s contribution to world growth is 50%.
China has become a key for global supply chains. Firms from around the world are shutting down, they cannot do business because key supplies do not come from China.
It will take time for the coronavirus to ease off. By then, global firms will be out of stock and supplies. China will face a huge task, to resupply the whole world. Some argue It will only take a few weeks for China to resupply the whole world. I do not buy this. According to my calculations, this will take several months.
All made in China or made in PRC product importers will see their warehouses empty and it will take a long time for them to see them full again. At the same time, American and European manufacturers will stop operating because they too will run out of Chinese components necessary for the completion of their products.
Some factories would have to close temporarily and some would have to close permanently. If that happens, then many people would be forced out of work.
It is a common secret that the coronavirus triggered the long-awaited recession. Financial analysts are worried about the overpriced stock market, the low yields, the quantitative easing, the negative interest rates,the global debt bubble, the geopolitical uncertainty.
A few days ago, Citigroup one of the US’s largest banks predicted that gold will hit $1700 per ounce, in the next six and twelve months and $2000in the next 2 to 24 months. Moreover, after last weeks’ carnage for the stocks, the Fed is expected to intervene and cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting.
This move will hopefully help boost consumer sentiment weakened by the spreading coronavirus. That means lower yields and negative interest rates. It will also add extra steam to bullish gold.
Following is a chart that shows how gold outperformed stocks during calamities.
Dot Com Crash2001
Stock Market Decline
Gold Price Results
Gold Outperformed Stocks By Ratio
The coronavirus is already causing headaches. As the public comes to terms with the effects of the virus on the global economy, the stock market is tumbling down, with stocks last week taking a beating. The Fed is about to step in and lower interest rates. But this is not going to be enough. There is going to be a supply shortage, as China, the world’s factory, won’t be able to keep up with demand after its factories reopen. The world economy is slowing down and the recession is looming. In times of turbulence, investing in precious metals is a must. And the king of precious metals is gold.