The Coronavirus Triggers the Long Overdue Global Recession

The Coronavirus Triggers the Long Overdue Global Recession

Last week, the stock market suffered its largest weekly loss, since the 2008 financial crisis amid worries that one of the largest economic expansions in history may be coming to an end. Many analysts blame the coronavirus for the market downturn.

In particular, the Dow Jones suffered the largest fall in history in a week, a loss of $12,36%. The US stock market lost $3,58 trillion dollars and the European markets lost $1,5 trillion, all that in a weeks’ time. Oil dropped 14,35%, from $58,5% to $50,01.

The Federal Reserve is ready to act, as it issued a statement affirming that the central bank would use all its tools and “act as appropriate to support the economy”.

The signs are there, the economic fallout is starting to take hold as retailers importers and home builders are facing delays in shipments from China. It looks like there will be disruptions to the global supply chain. And if this is not enough, people do not go to restaurants, people do not go to the movies, people do not go out, people do not travel, all this, to avoid contracting the virus.

There is no doubt there will be an economic downturn but, we still do not know to what extent. Unfortunately, the favorable scenario, that predicts the virus remains largely confined in China and thus affecting Chinese factory production, collapses.

The coronavirus is now present in more than sixty-five countries and almost out of control in China, South. Korea, IRAN and Italy. It is not a Chinese issue, it is a world issue now and its effect in global growth will be devastating.

Evidence of the Economic Fallout

Toll Brothers, the luxury home builder, said home sales to Chinese buyers had been postponed and shipments of fixtures from China delayed. The shoemaker Steve Madden said some shipments would be delayed for three weeks’, as its Chinese factories struggle to operate with fewer workers.

Already there is a drop in tourism, as people are afraid to travel. Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and many Asian countries are suffering from a huge drop in tourists from China. With tourism, airlines are suffering heavy losses with many flights running at a loss.

The Coronavirus Triggers the Long Overdue Global Recession

Technology is expected to take a large blow along with car manufacturing. There are many car manufacturers complaining about car part delays from Chinese factories.

Moreover, there are signs that American consumers, they are those who drive the economy, were becoming increasingly uneasy.

A modern economy needs optimism and willingness to spend. But in the last week, investors came to terms with the new economic outlook where corporate profits will stop growing and in many cases will be replaced by losses.

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Low-Interest Rates

Many investors expect the Fed to step in and act quickly-cut interest rates in the face of coronavirus news and market downturns. Even President Trump intervened on Friday and actually said that he hoped the Fed would step in. Soon the Fed issued a statement reassuring investors that is ready to act.

The 2008 Demand Shock

The 2008 great recession was largely a “demand shock” as a number of banks collapsed, home prices plunged and trillions of dollars in household wealth were wiped out. People and businesses suddenly had less money to spend, causing the economy to fall into a deep recession.

The 2020 Supply Shock

I am afraid lowering interest rates will not be enough. It is not a coronavirus threat anymore, it is a supply threat.

China the world’s factory struggles to get back to work. Imagine, if every factory and office produces 10% less than it did last year. This is very difficult to fix, even if you put more money into people’s pockets, it will not make up for closed stores and factories that aren’t operating.

Nouriel Roubini’s Prediction

Nouriel Roubini, the well-known economist, who predicted the 2008 recession, and head of the Roubini Macro Associates, predicts that the coronavirus will have severe economic repercussions for the global economy. That was a couple of days ago when he was interviewed for a German magazine called “Der Spiegel”.

In particular, he says that the markets have not come to terms with the extent of the effect the coronavirus is going to have on the global economy. According to Roubini, the markets are making three mistakes.

1-This is not an epidemic contained in China, but a pandemic.

2-It will take a long time to contain and the politicians haven’t come to terms with the huge impact it will have.

3-The markets will take a steep dive and it is not certain after that dive a strong recovery will follow.

The Chinese recovery will not be enough to cover the expected 6% growth for this year. Nouriel Roubini expects the Chinese economic growth to be between 2,5% and 4%.

We are Entering the Long Overdue Recession

The Coronavirus Triggers the Long Overdue Global Recession

As I said before people won’t go to the movies, people won’t go to restaurants, people won’t go to live events, people won’t go on holidays and in the worst-case people won’t go to work. It is already happening in the 10million city of Wuhan in China. In France, the famous Louvre museum is closed and in football-crazy Italy, the derby between Juventus and Inter will take place with no spectators.

During the SARS epidemic, China was only 4% of the world economy. Today, China is 20% of the world economy. In addition, globalization back then was not as deep as it is right now. Furthermore, China’s contribution to world growth back then was 20%. Nowadays, China’s contribution to world growth is 50%.

China has become a key for global supply chains. Firms from around the world are shutting down, they cannot do business because key supplies do not come from China.

It will take time for the coronavirus to ease off. By then, global firms will be out of stock and supplies. China will face a huge task, to resupply the whole world. Some argue It will only take a few weeks for China to resupply the whole world. I do not buy this. According to my calculations, this will take several months.

All made in China or made in PRC product importers will see their warehouses empty and it will take a long time for them to see them full again. At the same time, American and European manufacturers will stop operating because they too will run out of Chinese components necessary for the completion of their products.

Some factories would have to close temporarily and some would have to close permanently. If that happens, then many people would be forced out of work.

It is a common secret that the coronavirus triggered the long-awaited recession. Financial analysts are worried about the overpriced stock market, the low yields, the quantitative easing, the negative interest rates, the global debt bubble, the geopolitical uncertainty.

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Industries Affected by the Coronavirus Pandemic

  1. Tourism
  2. Airlines
  3. Car Manufacturers
  4. Technology

Coronavirus Recession and Gold

The Coronavirus Triggers the Long Overdue Global Recession

A few days ago, Citigroup one of the US’s largest banks predicted that gold will hit $1700 per ounce, in the next six and twelve months and $2000in the next 2 to 24 months. Moreover, after last weeks’ carnage for the stocks, the Fed is expected to intervene and cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting.

This move will hopefully help boost consumer sentiment weakened by the spreading coronavirus. That means lower yields and negative interest rates. It will also add extra steam to bullish gold.

Following is a chart that shows how gold outperformed stocks during calamities.

Black Monday1987 Iraq-Kuwait War1990 Dot Com Crash2001 Financial Crisis2008
Stock Market Decline -38.9 -22.5 -27% -34%
Gold Price Results +5% +7.5% +1% +5%
Gold Outperformed Stocks By Ratio 45:1 31:1 29:1 40:1

Conclusion

The coronavirus is already causing headaches. As the public comes to terms with the effects of the virus on the global economy, the stock market is tumbling down, with stocks last week taking a beating. The Fed is about to step in and lower interest rates. But this is not going to be enough. There is going to be a supply shortage, as China, the world’s factory, won’t be able to keep up with demand after its factories reopen. The world economy is slowing down and the recession is looming. In times of turbulence, investing in precious metals is a must. And the king of precious metals is gold.

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Author: Nektarios
Hi, there. My name is Nektarios. I have been an investor and market analyst for over thirty years. I created this website to provide you with the latest up-to-date investment news.

14 thoughts on “The Coronavirus Triggers the Long Overdue Global Recession

  1. hello, it is a great and nice feeling to know that someone will create a great website like this and also create a write up on an article like this. after following nouriels roubini’s prediction i realized that just anything is possible. the effect of this disease covid 19 is great and the recession it has caused is massive

    1. Hi Benny, there is a recession looming but there is no reason for all of us to give up. We need to take advantage of it. After all opportunities exist in all situations no matter what. What is important for the investor now is to protect his savings and gold is the best option at the moment, in my opinion.   

  2. Hi

    You have written such an important article on the affect the coronavirus is having on the stock markets around the world. The problem is that people  are panicking and when people panic, so do the stock markets. Yes, the virus is having an affect  on people’s lives, but so do flu which every year kills thousands of people. We do not panic in these situations, so why do people do when a coronavirus emerges. It seems to me markets are panicking  over stuff that happens every winter. If people learn to keep their heads on straight and treat it like any other viral infection then this situation  will not be allowed to happen. You have made investing in gold more safe, unless all the mine needs to shut down because of the coronavirus.

    Thanks

    Antonio 

    1. Hi Antonio, you are right, when investors panick, then the markets follow. However in this case it  is not the coronavirus panick only. It is the effects of it and I am not talking about the huge drop in the stock market. It is the shutdown in the Chinese manufacturing sector. China is the world’s factory, and already there is a supply shortage in goods. In 2008 we had a “demand shock” that triggered a recession, now we will have a “supply shock.” 

       

  3. Yes, everything looks really bad right now but I don’t believe we are looking at a recession, especially if this is solely the result of the coronavirus. It seems to me this will pass too. Which means the economy will eventually come roaring back. But maybe I’m naive but that is my deeply held believe right now. Having said that, I believe you should be diversified in the market especially with precious metals for times such as these. Thank you for sharing this perspective.

    1. Hi, thanks for the comment, we all hope the oncoming recession doesn’t last long, Time will show. If we manage to keep the coronavirus under control for the next couple of months, the world economy damage will be contained and world economies will bounce back soon. However, all data shows the virus to be out of control and unless unpopular measures take place, things will not get better. 

  4. Your chart near the end is really interesting. Gold clearly is more stable during times of stress and instability. I’ve always been curious about “how” exactly one invests in gold. This is a helpful article and it sounds like the company you have partnered with is a good bet. Thanks for your review and helpful info. 

    1. During hard times gold always outperforms other types of investments and that is why gold is called the safe heaven asset. Someome can invest in gold by buying gold bullion or coins. When it comes to small investment, I think gold bullion coins are a better investment. However, when it comes to a larger investment gold bullion bars should be considered. Thanks for your comment.

  5. Good read, thanks. Gold has stayed strong through most worldwide financial difficulties (except 1980- 82 and later on in 1998) and along with silver, it’s a solid commodity to hang on to, no matter what. If Gold does decline again (as it did end of Feb) it will rise up quickly, as todays numbers show. Thank you for the realism and the reminder that having Gold is as good (or even better!) as, $$ in the bank.

    1. Gold is real money, no matter where you are you can always exchange gold for money, especially gold coins.

  6. Your succinct immediate take on the coronavirus’ effect upon the world’s economy is mind-blowing!

    I hope you’re incorrect though. I predict the indomitable American enterprise spirit will create and manufacture – in the U.S., the ingredients currently missing from the American economy. I don’t see an economic choke hold lasting very long in the United States.

    1. In a western economy a recession is never welcomed but in many cases necessary. We have seen unprecedented growth in the stock market, real estate etc. The US stock market enjoyed a record ten year growth and in my opinion it turned out to be overvalued. The Fed kept intervening in favor of the markets and that also kept stocks on the rise. As a result, a small market correction with little effects on the economy never developed instead, there is going to be a violent correction with a larger impact on US and global economy. The coronavitus is just the tip of the iceberg. 

  7. It is a timely reminder for us all about the extent of harm the Virus will cause.

    Many businesses will have product restrictions that could cause them to close doors and 
    get rid of staff. This will not show for several months because of the time lag.

    Clothing, White goods, Pool equipment, Accessories, Car parts and other mechanical necessities.

    The list is very long and the damage will stay for some time.

    We can do little about it except prepare as well as we can.

    Gold will rise as the stock exchange goes down.

    Peter H

    1. Yes there will be shortages, it will be the “supply shock” as there is going to be demand but supply will be insufficient and I do not know how long it will take for that to be fixed. As large corporations see their profits turn into losses, investors are going to seek small risk investment opportunities, government bonds, gold, etc.  

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